President Ruto’s ODM invitation sparks speculation of political realignment ahead of 2027

The invitation of President William Ruto, one of the founding members of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party, to its 20th anniversary celebrations in Mombasa could signal a political pact in the making, observers now suggest.

Ruto is expected to attend the party’s milestone event this weekend.

A former member of the famed ODM Pentagon, Ruto is set to join the ODM fraternity for its first national gathering since the passing of its founding leader, Raila Odinga.

The celebrations are being held in honour of Raila, who was expected to lead the party in marking the occasion before his untimely death on Wednesday, October 15.

Ruto’s attendance was initially confirmed by acting ODM party leader and Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga. ODM Executive Director Oduor Ong’wen added that the decision to invite Ruto was in line with Raila’s wish to have the party’s founding members present.

Political analyst Samuel Owida said Ruto is warming up to ODM because his political numbers have dwindled, and the United Opposition poses a serious threat.

“It’s not about his soft spot for the Orange party. The threats he’s facing in terms of political numbers have put him under siege to secure his second term, through thick and thin,” Owida observed.

Owida further noted that the president, who will be seeking re-election, is prepared to go all in and fly the Orange flag if it becomes the only viable path to victory in 2027.

Other founding members invited include former Cabinet Secretary Najib Balala, while the attendance of Musalia Mudavadi and Charity Ngilu remains unconfirmed.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, and former Assistant Minister Julia Ojiambo have also been invited.

According to lawyer Wills Otieno, a key Safina-Kenya Party official and political maverick, Ruto is eager to inherit Raila Odinga’s political constituency.

In his view, without it, Ruto has no fighting chance, even though with it, victory is still not guaranteed.

“ODM is William Ruto’s chosen political vessel. He will give it more prominence than his UDA outfit, which has lost favour with the people,” Otieno said.

Ruto’s attendance is expected to have a significant impact, with the potential ODM partnership and the 2027 General Election likely to dominate discussions at the event.

For Ruto, the gathering will test his support among Raila’s base, amid speculation that he is seeking to take control of ODM in the post-Raila era. Reports of internal cracks within ODM have further intensified discourse around the party’s future.

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High Court Advocate and political commentator Ambrose Weda believes the future of ODM depends on the actions of its leaders.

“President Ruto is focused on Kenya’s unity and prosperity, and his re-election in 2027. Whether the party thrives or falters will depend on how its leaders embrace the people and the president,” Weda said.

According to the programme released by ODM, the event will begin with a special sitting of the National Governing Council (NGC) on Thursday, November 13.

On Friday, the party will host an ODM Disability League Breakfast from 7:00 am to 9:00 am, followed by parallel summits of ODM Women and ODM Youth from 10:00 am to 1:00 pm. A youth concert will close the day, running from 6:00 pm to midnight.

On Saturday, a celebration in honour of Raila will take place from 7:30 am to 2:00 pm at Mama Ngina Waterfront, highlighting his achievements, vision, and legacy. This will be followed by an ODM Founders’ Dinner at Sarova Whitesands Beach Resort from 6:30 pm.

The final day will feature an inter-religious thanksgiving service in gratitude for Raila’s life, leadership, and the ODM journey.